The Coming Tsunami

By Mike Glenn

A tsunami of change is going to be hitting the church in North America in the next few years that will rearrange the church environment in ways unlike anything we’ve seen since the First Great Awakening. Some researchers say 30% of the churches in North America will close in the next 5 years. Some say as many as 50% of congregations will close.

Seminaries are shrinking. Even the schools that claim to be increasing are doing so with part-time, online, and second career students. Even more concerning is the fact that most of the graduates don’t want to pastor a local church. They want to lead a non-profit or parachurch organization.

There are several rivers flowing together to make this coming tsunami. Boomers are retiring and we have spent the last of the boomer money. The builder generation came home after World War II and built all the great companies. They endowed churches and universities. Boomers could make good payments and capital campaigns adjusted to three year commitments. Churches raised a lot of money from these two generations. Now, Gen X and the following generations are coming into leadership with two very distinctive traits.

First, they trust no one. They don’t trust institutions. They don’t trust politicians. They don’t trust religious leaders. Colleges and universities have over promised and under delivered. The result has been college graduates with unmarketable degrees and crushing student debt. The moral failures of religious leaders have added to their cynicism. Trust is hard won and easy to lose.

Second, while conventional wisdom says Gen X doesn’t give, that’s not true. Gen X and following generations can and will give very generously. Here’s the difference: Gen X has to see the impact of their giving or they won’t give. They no longer trust “big bucket” giving. They want to give directly to the moment of impact. If they can’t see how their dollar is changing someone’s life, they won’t give it. I often tell people Gen X will give the shirt off their back for well in Africa, but they won’t give fifteen cents to replace a light bulb in the sanctuary. The rising generations don’t have – and won’t have – the discretionary income to give to large capital campaigns and complex budgets of large churches.

If you asked them if they “tithe,” they would say “yes.” What they mean is this: 2% goes to a missionary friend in Central America, 3% goes to the college ministry where they were converted, 4% goes to their church and the final 1% goes to a few local non-profits. In the future, churches will have to think very differently about buildings and budgets.

Covid gave people permission to stay home and watch worship services on TV. Most people will tell you they prefer being in church in person, but you know how it goes, the kids don’t feel well, it’s been a long week, we just couldn’t make it last week. The result is even the most faithful members only attend twice a month these days. When they watch worship services on the internet, many will add the teachings of other well known pastors or Bible teachers. Some of these teachers will actually conflict in their understanding of certain biblical doctrines, but they’re entertaining and the program “feels like church.” The theology of most of the upcoming generations is a hodge podge of teachings, sermons, and half-heard conversations. Most of our friends aren’t living their lives within the framework of a well thought out theology.

While worship attendance will become more and more optional, small groups will become more and more of a priority. Belonging to a community where I am known and loved will become the one thing Gen X and the following generations will not compromise on or neglect. Remember, one of the most concerning issues of our time is loneliness. The one thing small groups do is give everyone a place to belong, a place where they are expected and friends who are looking out for them. In a world of broken families, groups recreate the family structures. The future of the church will once again be found around the kitchen table. Homes will be the new sanctuaries. As in the New Testament, we’ll identify ourselves as being part of the church in the house of Mike, Bob’s garage, or Elizabeth’s apartment. You get the picture.

Do not hear me as being discouraged. I am concerned that most of our churches, seminaries and other religious structures like denominations aren’t ready for the coming changes in our culture. However, what gives me hope is knowing our culture is asking questions only the gospel can answer. Questions of identity, purpose, meaning and hope are all Jesus questions. Simply telling the story of Jesus and sharing his kingdom teachings are going to be the best way to reach our generation. After all, it’s been the best way to reach our world from the beginning.

Pastoral training will return to the local church. Ministry will be given back to the people and the kitchen table will become the new sanctuary. The church will survive – even thrive – in the coming years. God always has a people. God always finds a way.

I hate that I’m 69. Watching the gospel flourish against all that will be thrown against it will be something to behold.